This week's thought experiment is a straightforward math problem. Can you solve it?
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Marge was no mathematician, but she knew she had just discovered a foolproof system to get rich playing roulette.
She had been observing the spin of the wheel at the casino for several days. During this time she had noticed that it was surprisingly normal for there to be a sequence of spins when the ball fell into only black or only red slots. But five in a row of the same color was very unusual and six in a row happened only a couple of times a day.
This was going to be her system. The chances of the ball falling into a slot of the same color six times in a row were tiny. So, she would watch, and once it fell into, say, red, five times in a row, she would bet that the next one would be black. She was bound to win more often than she lost because six in a row was so rare. She was so confident that she had already started to think about how she would spend the money.
Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 16.
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What do you think? Will Marge strike it rich with this plan? I'll be back on Friday with a quick response to this one.
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Marge was no mathematician, but she knew she had just discovered a foolproof system to get rich playing roulette.
She had been observing the spin of the wheel at the casino for several days. During this time she had noticed that it was surprisingly normal for there to be a sequence of spins when the ball fell into only black or only red slots. But five in a row of the same color was very unusual and six in a row happened only a couple of times a day.
This was going to be her system. The chances of the ball falling into a slot of the same color six times in a row were tiny. So, she would watch, and once it fell into, say, red, five times in a row, she would bet that the next one would be black. She was bound to win more often than she lost because six in a row was so rare. She was so confident that she had already started to think about how she would spend the money.
Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 16.
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What do you think? Will Marge strike it rich with this plan? I'll be back on Friday with a quick response to this one.
