Which way do we go?
This week's thought experiment is going to delve into the philosophy of decision theory, but it's a bit abstruse so I hope you don't decide to give up on this whole project of mine because of that...
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'Marco the Magnificent will now demonstrate his extraordinary powers of precognition! You, sir! What is your name?'
'Frank,' replied Frank, to the fairground showman.
'Frank, I know your future! I know all futures, including those of stocks and shares! Which is why I have the money to give away to you in this demonstration of my powers! Behold, two boxes! One you can see is open. It contains £1,000. The other is closed. It contains either £1 million or nothing at all! You may take either box or both. But be warned! I know how you will choose. If you take just the closed box, it will contain £1 million. If you take both, it will be empty. And if I am wrong, I will give £1 million, which you see before you, to a random member of the crowd!'
Everyone gasped as Marco opened a suitcase full of £50 notes.
'Ladies and gentlemen. I have performed this miracle one hundred times and never been wrong, as independent observers have testified. And if you observe the closed box, which is now ten feet from me, you will see that nothing I do can now alter its contents. So, Frank. What will you choose?'
Source: Newcomb's Paradox, devised by William Newcomb and popularised in 'Newcomb's Problem and Two Principles of Choice' by Robert Nozick, in Essays in Honour of Carl G. Hempel (1970).
Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 124.
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Okay... So if you were Frank, what box or boxes would you choose? Why? And what would the outcome actually be? I'll be back on Friday to discuss.
Or will I?!?
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'Marco the Magnificent will now demonstrate his extraordinary powers of precognition! You, sir! What is your name?'
'Frank,' replied Frank, to the fairground showman.
'Frank, I know your future! I know all futures, including those of stocks and shares! Which is why I have the money to give away to you in this demonstration of my powers! Behold, two boxes! One you can see is open. It contains £1,000. The other is closed. It contains either £1 million or nothing at all! You may take either box or both. But be warned! I know how you will choose. If you take just the closed box, it will contain £1 million. If you take both, it will be empty. And if I am wrong, I will give £1 million, which you see before you, to a random member of the crowd!'
Everyone gasped as Marco opened a suitcase full of £50 notes.
'Ladies and gentlemen. I have performed this miracle one hundred times and never been wrong, as independent observers have testified. And if you observe the closed box, which is now ten feet from me, you will see that nothing I do can now alter its contents. So, Frank. What will you choose?'
Source: Newcomb's Paradox, devised by William Newcomb and popularised in 'Newcomb's Problem and Two Principles of Choice' by Robert Nozick, in Essays in Honour of Carl G. Hempel (1970).
Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 124.
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Okay... So if you were Frank, what box or boxes would you choose? Why? And what would the outcome actually be? I'll be back on Friday to discuss.
Or will I?!?
