Hey, that's Novak Djokovic! He's a safe bet, right?
After a very long and difficult thought experiment last week, it sure would be nice to get something a bit easier to tackle. Good thing I woke up feeling sure that will be the case. Let's see if I'm right.
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Paul knew which horse would win the Derby. At least, he felt certain he knew, and when he had felt this certainty in the past, he had never been wrong.
Paul's conviction was not based on studying the horses' form. Nor could he see the future unfolding in a vision. Rather, the name of the winning horse would just come to him, as he rode back and forth on his rocking horse, which he had really outgrown.
It was not that Paul won all his bets (or those made on his behalf by the adults who shared his secret). Sometimes he was less sure, and on other occasions he didn't really know at all and just guessed. But he never bet a large amount in those circumstances. When he was completely sure, however, he put down almost all the money he had. The method had never let him down yet.
Oscar, one of his adult collaborators, had no doubt that Paul possessed an uncanny ability, but he was not sure that Paul really knew the winners. It wasn't enough that Paul had always won so far. Unless he knew why he had got it right, the foundations of his belief were far too shaky to hold true knowledge. However, that did not stop Oscar from betting some of his own money on Paul's tips.
Sources: 'The Rocking-Hourse Winner' by D.H. Lawrence (1926); lectures by Michael Proudfoot
Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 118.
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Of course I was just kidding about having that feeling about this thought experiment being an easy one. But it looks like I might be right anyway. What do you think? Have you ever inexplicably known something? I'll be back on Friday to discuss. But you already knew that didn't you?
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Paul knew which horse would win the Derby. At least, he felt certain he knew, and when he had felt this certainty in the past, he had never been wrong.
Paul's conviction was not based on studying the horses' form. Nor could he see the future unfolding in a vision. Rather, the name of the winning horse would just come to him, as he rode back and forth on his rocking horse, which he had really outgrown.
It was not that Paul won all his bets (or those made on his behalf by the adults who shared his secret). Sometimes he was less sure, and on other occasions he didn't really know at all and just guessed. But he never bet a large amount in those circumstances. When he was completely sure, however, he put down almost all the money he had. The method had never let him down yet.
Oscar, one of his adult collaborators, had no doubt that Paul possessed an uncanny ability, but he was not sure that Paul really knew the winners. It wasn't enough that Paul had always won so far. Unless he knew why he had got it right, the foundations of his belief were far too shaky to hold true knowledge. However, that did not stop Oscar from betting some of his own money on Paul's tips.
Sources: 'The Rocking-Hourse Winner' by D.H. Lawrence (1926); lectures by Michael Proudfoot
Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 118.
---------------------------------------------------
Of course I was just kidding about having that feeling about this thought experiment being an easy one. But it looks like I might be right anyway. What do you think? Have you ever inexplicably known something? I'll be back on Friday to discuss. But you already knew that didn't you?
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