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Thought Experiment 36: Pre-emptive Justice

12/7/2015

2 Comments

 
Picture
Tom Cruise can read your mind.
I already know what you're going to say, but let's go through this week's thought experiment anyway.

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     Damn liberals. Chief Inspector Andrews had worked miracles in this city. Murders down 90 per cent. Robberies down 80 per cent. Street crime down 85 per cent. Car theft down 70 per cent. But now she was in the dock and all that good work in jeopardy.
     Her police authority was the first in the country to implement the newly legalised pre-emptive justice programme. Advances in computing and AI now made it possible to predict who would commit what sort of crime in the near future. People could be tested for all sorts of reasons: as part of a random programme or on the basis of a specific suspicion. If there were found to be future criminals, then they would be arrested and punished in advance.
     Andrews did not think the scheme draconian. In fact, because no crime had been committed at the time of the arrest, sentences were much more lenient. A future murderer would go on an intense program designed to make sure they didn't go on and kill and would only be released when tests showed they wouldn't. Often that meant detention of less than a year. Had they been left to actually commit the crime, they would have been looking at life imprisonment and, more importantly, a person would be dead.
     But still these damn liberals protested that you can't lock someone up for something they didn't do. Andrews grimaced, and wondered how many she could pull in for testing...


Sources: Minority Report, directed by Steven Spielberg (2002); 'The Minority Report' by Philip K. Dick, republished in Minority Report: The Collected Short Stories of Philip K. Dick (Gollancz, 2000).

Baggini, J., The Pig That Wants to Be Eaten, 2005, p. 106.

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​What do you think? Can you pre-empt my post on Friday when I discuss my answer to this?
2 Comments
John A. Johnson link
12/7/2015 09:47:47 pm

Whether we think it is okay or not, Minority Report type programs are already in existence today. No, of course we do not arrest and detain people for crimes they are predicted to commit. But there are a variety of social programs that identify "at-risk" children who are given special scrutiny and treatments designed to decrease their likelihood of future problematic behavior. Another example is any insurance program, especially when premiums are graded according to age, gender, and lifestyle.Because one happens to be male or female and of a certain age, the company says that you are more likely to get sick or have an auto accident or die and therefore you'll pay in advance with a higher premium. Tobacco-users pay higher premiums than non-tobacco users. Even when you are an exception to the rule. Or, ironically, when risk factors are not included, insurance ends up punishing people who do not benefit from the program more than those who do. People are are careful, eat well, exercise, don't abuse drugs and alcohol, etc. end up paying for people who burn down their houses and get sick from an unhealthy lifestyle. Also ironic is that the "interventions" of insurance programs (mainly sending out newsletters on safety and healthy living) are meant to increase the profits of the companies (because people will file fewer claims) rather than improve the lives of the insured.

So, are any programs designed to predict future problems and have people pay in advance (either literally with money or by participating in preventative programs) "moral?" To my mind, only if one thinks it is acceptable to hurt some people in order to help others. Frankly, I don't like it. Thank goodness we don't have to face the literal trolley problem in everyday life, but there are enough real-life analogs where some people are forced to sacrifice to help others. And I say "forced" because now health insurance as well as auto and home owner's insurance is mandatory. Make the system completely voluntary and I might have a different opinion.

Reply
@EdGibney link
12/8/2015 10:23:18 am

Thanks John. I think the "moral hazard" of insurance companies is off topic from what I want to get into on Friday, but it's an interesting debate. I do think you are right about "preventive" measures already mimicking Minority Report scenarios, and I'll definitely talk about that.

As to your point about such programs being "moral" if one thinks it's acceptable to hurt some people in order to help others, I think it's important to consider short-term "hurts" vs. long-term benefits since slavishly following the needs of the self can cause great harm to societies, which eventually harms all individuals. Addressing market failures are essentially the job of government that has sprung up over the centuries of markets failing (for public goods, natural monopolies, asymmetrical power or information dynamics, etc.). I wish we all went through "confirmations" of sorts to sign up for our own social contracts so we took the time to learn and understand what we have signed up for in society. I also wish we had countries or planets for people who wished to opt out of these governments' social contracts. I'm sure that the examples of such areas for "free individuals" would send everyone running to civilised societies. That's essentially what is already happening with refugees from failed states, but you never see American libertarians running the other direction to carve out a gun-defended enclave of their own. Why is that?

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